Analysts have been speculating for months that the ANC will fall short of 50% of the vote for the first time since coming to power 30 years ago under the late Nelson Mandela at the end of apartheid.

But if it secures close to half the vote or more, the May 29 election will be less of a watershed as the ANC will still be firmly in control of the nation's politics.

The poll, updated on weekdays by the Social Research Foundation think tank, put support for the ANC at 44.8% on Friday, the latest day for which data is available, up from 37.7% exactly one month earlier under a scenario modelled for the 66% turnout seen at the last national election in 2019.

--Reuters--