Former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi has confirmed he will contest the election but has ruled out the possibility of running on a joint ticket with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

The decision has stirred debate about the future of the alliance, which was meant to unite key opposition figures under one front. Political analyst Austin Aigbe, speaking from Abuja, said Obi’s confirmation came as no surprise given the political groundwork he has been laying since the last election.

“From the moment he began consulting with allies and visiting stakeholders, it was clear he was preparing for another run,” Aigbe said.

Obi’s decision appears to be influenced by Nigeria’s informal power rotation between the north and south. Former President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner, completed two terms in office, and the current President Bola Tinubu, from the south, is serving his first. Obi, also from the south, is reportedly open to serving only one term, completing the south’s expected eight years before power rotates back north.

“There’s no scenario where Obi could be Atiku’s running mate. It just wouldn’t make sense politically. Atiku’s return would mean a northern agenda, which would go against the power-sharing understanding,” Aigbe explained.

The ADA itself is still in the process of securing full registration with the electoral commission. Its members include several high-profile politicians who have fallen out with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), such as Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi and Atiku himself. Many were part of the group that left the PDP a decade ago to form the APC.

Should the ADA fail to register in time, the coalition is expected to use the African Democratic Congress as a backup platform. But this may come with its own set of complications, as party ownership and internal control remain sensitive issues in Nigeria’s political landscape.

“Most parties here don’t have strong institutions behind them. They’re usually controlled by a few individuals and fade after elections,” Aigbe noted.

As for civil society, Aigbe said organisations like the West Africa Democracy Solidarity Network have been pushing for issue-based politics through public debates and voter education. The goal, he said, is to shift attention away from regional rivalries and focus on policies that address poverty, insecurity and economic reform.

--ChannelAfrica--