The ruling South West Africa People’s Organization (SWAPO), which has held power since Namibia’s independence in 1990, faces growing challenges. For the first time in decades, it could lose control of the Presidency or Parliament, with many questioning whether the party’s long-standing dominance is beginning to wane.

SWAPO has won every election since independence, but its victory margins have steadily decreased over the years. In the 2014 presidential election, SWAPO garnered 87% of the vote. By 2019, this dropped to 56%, signalling a potential loss of popular support. As Namibians head to the polls later this month, there are growing concerns about the ruling party’s future, especially as it faces mounting pressure from opposition parties.

Former Namibian Ambassador Tuliameni Kalomoh, a prominent political analyst suggests that SWAPO, like many other liberation parties on the continent, is losing its appeal to younger voters. He also pointed to a pattern in other African countries, where liberation movements that once held the mantle of freedom have seen their influence diminish over time.

However, Kalomoh is not overly optimistic about the prospects of the opposition. While parties like the newly-formed Patriots for Change (PFC) have garnered attention, they have yet to make significant inroads into SWAPO’s strongholds. Despite facing challenges such as high youth unemployment and corruption scandals, Kalomoh believes that SWAPO will still perform better in the upcoming elections than in 2019, when it lost its two-thirds majority in Parliament.

A key factor in SWAPO’s declining fortunes is the legacy of former President Hage Geingob, whose tenure saw both political and economic difficulties. According to Kalomoh, two main issues contributed to the loss of ground: corruption scandals, particularly in the fishing sector, which broke just before the 2019 elections, and the persistent problem of youth unemployment. Namibia’s small economy has struggled to keep up with the rising population, leaving many young people without job prospects.

The question remains whether SWAPO can overcome these challenges and maintain its dominance. The opposition, however, remains fragmented, with no single party emerging as a clear challenger to SWAPO's decades-long rule. Namibia’s relatively small population of just over 3 million people has led to a crowded presidential race, with 18 candidates vying for the top job.  

Kalomoh expressed skepticism about the ability of these opposition parties to unseat SWAPO, especially as many lack the political experience or strong grassroots support to pose a real threat.

One of the most notable figures in the race is Vice President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, SWAPO’s first female presidential candidate. Kalomoh praises her leadership qualities, pointing out her long history of involvement in the struggle for independence, her incorruptibility, and her unifying vision for Namibia. He believes that Nandi-Ndaitwah has the skills needed to lead the country and bring about much-needed change, particularly in addressing service delivery issues, which have become a major concern for voters.

As the election date draws closer, political parties in Namibia are making a final push to secure voters. Many candidates have promised economic development, job creation, and improvements to education and healthcare. However, given Namibia’s relatively small economy and the long-term nature of current investment projects, Kalomoh cautions that these promises may be difficult to fulfill in the short term.

In the end, November 27 elections could prove pivotal in shaping Namibia’s future. Whether SWAPO can maintain its grip on power or whether a new political order will emerge remains to be seen.

--ChannelAfrica--