A leading African conflict resolution expert has warned this could happen if key armed groups such as M23 continue to be sidelined.

Dr Charles Nyuykonge during an interview said that while the political deal marks progress, its failure to include the voices and grievances of non-state armed groups could ultimately undermine its success. “This agreement, though celebrated, is dangerously incomplete,” he cautioned. “By ignoring the very actors fighting on the ground, particularly M23, the deal lacks the substance needed to bring sustainable peace.”

The agreement, signed in Washington DC on Friday under the oversight of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, commits both countries to end hostilities, stop backing armed groups, and respect each other’s territorial integrity. It also proposes economic co-operation in the mining and tourism sectors.

Yet, as Nyuykonge pointed out, “You cannot make peace above the heads of those holding the guns.” With M23 not party to the talks, he warned that the group, a primary driver of violence in eastern DRC, may feel disenfranchised and continue its insurgency.

The DRC has long accused Rwanda of supporting M23 to exploit mineral-rich regions, while Rwanda claims Kinshasa protects Hutu militias hostile to Kigali’s government. The new agreement sets a three-month timeline for the disarmament of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, which Kigali deems a threat, as a prerequisite for Rwanda's military withdrawal.

While the deal has been met with cautious optimism among some Congolese, many remain sceptical, arguing it favours foreign geopolitical and economic interests. The US is also expected to finalise a separate minerals deal with the DRC, raising concerns over transparency and sovereignty.

Nyuykonge stressed that any mineral agreement must benefit ordinary Congolese. “Right now, the DRC is haemorrhaging wealth through illicit trade. If this deal finally introduces accountability and national benefit, then it’s a step forward, but it must not come at the cost of Congolese dignity or autonomy.”

Although African institutions such as the African Union and Southern African Development Community were not central to the signing, Nyuykonge acknowledged their foundational efforts and said they must continue playing a role. He also noted that the peace agreement includes a monitoring mechanism composed of Rwandan, Congolese, and African representatives under US oversight.

Nyuykonge offered a final caution; “Peace cannot be imposed. If this deal fails to evolve and include all parties to the conflict, it will become just another chapter in a long history of missed opportunities.”

--ChannelAfrica--