Kiarie says it’s a long-overdue shift, but it offers a chance for Somali forces to take a more central role in the fight against al-Shabaab.

The United Nations (UN) Security Council authorised a new AU mission in Somalia, called the African Union Stabilisation and Support Mission (Ousts), set to replace the AU’s current anti-terrorism operation starting from January 1,2025.  

The decision marks a pivotal shift in the international community’s involvement in Somalia’s security, which has been largely reliant on foreign resources since Ethiopia’s intervention in 2006. That intervention ousted an Islamist administration but also contributed to the rise of the al-Shabaab insurgency, which has caused the deaths of tens of thousands.

In June this year, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), key funders of AU operations in Somalia, raised concerns about the long-term sustainability of peacekeeping efforts, calling for a reduction in AU forces. Negotiations surrounding the new mission have been complex, with questions about how to effectively address the ongoing insurgency while managing funding issues.

Kiarie explained that the transition could be seen as a necessary step in sustaining the pressure on al-Shabaab, which has been a dominant force in Somalia since 2000, succeeding the Union of Islamic Courts after the collapse of the Somali government.  

Despite setbacks following the end of the AU mission in 2022, he noted that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government has made progress against the militants. However, al-Shabaab continues to maintain strongholds in various regions, including the border areas with Kenya.

Kiarie expressed concerns about the financial sustainability of the new mission, particularly given the broader global economic pressures, including the impact of the war in Ukraine on international funding priorities. "With the EU and the US reassessing their contributions, there is a real risk that funding for this new mission may be unstable, which could affect its operational capabilities," he added.

Kiarie also noted that the US, under President Donald Trump, had become increasingly inward-looking, prioritising domestic interests over international commitments. While countries like Turkey and Egypt have been more involved in stabilising Somalia, the absence of Western powers could signal a broader shift in US foreign policy, with less focus on the Horn of Africa.

Kiarie was cautiously optimistic about Somalia’s long-term prospects. While the Somali National Army is gaining capacity, he acknowledged that the presence of foreign forces has been crucial in countering the al-Shabaab threat, especially given the support the group receives from external actors in the Gulf. "Sustaining Somalia’s national security will require continued regional and international collaboration, but with greater involvement from Somali forces," Kiarie concluded.

--ChannelAfrica--