The proposed text introduces a single seven-year presidential term, renewable once, and notably allows the country’s military leader, Mamady Doumbouya, to run in forthcoming elections. This move comes despite earlier assurances that power would be handed over to a civilian government.
Critics fear the new constitution risks cementing military control and weakening democratic progress, not just in Guinea, but across West Africa.
Political expert Dr Douglas Yates, who specialises in African affairs, spoke about what the draft constitution means for Guinea and the region as a whole.
When asked if the recent developments came as a surprise, Dr Yates said they did not. “Doumbouya never seemed inclined to relinquish power, whether to civilians or rival factions. Having seized power by force, he appears prepared to keep it by force if necessary,” he explained. He added that Doumbouya’s strategy mirrors the example set by Gabon’s Ali Bongo, who restructured his country’s constitution to enable himself to run for two seven-year presidential terms before securing electoral victory.
Despite these parallels, Yates noted important distinctions. “Unlike Gabon’s dynastic regime, Doumbouya ousted former Guinea President, Alpha Condé, a former opposition figure who had faced imprisonment and exile,” he pointed out. “While Doumbouya initially enjoyed popular support as a change-maker, goodwill has eroded. He has arrested opposition figures, threatened protesters with harsh sentences, and struck deals that have raised questions about resource exploitation.”
Yates highlighted the challenge Guinea faces as a nation with limited democratic experience and a divided opposition. “Even if protests arise, the government has shown it will respond with repression,” he warned, citing the recent pardon of a military officer convicted of killing civilians.
On the regional impact, Yates expressed serious concern. “There is a contagious effect to coups; one can lead to others within a country, and they can spread to neighbouring states. The current wave threatens stability across West Africa.”
He criticised the role of international military aid, which has sometimes empowered coup leaders. “Doumbouya, for example, trained with both French and American forces and maintains links to other regional coup figures. Instead of promoting stability, such training has often facilitated military takeovers.”
The political scientist also highlighted the geopolitical shifts underpinning these events. “Military rulers face a legitimacy crisis. Unable to deliver on promises of development or security, they seek external enemies to consolidate power. France has become a convenient target, enabling some leaders to turn towards Russia for military support and information warfare.”
The draft constitution can be seen as a calculated move by Doumbouya to ‘civilianise’ his regime and gain international acceptance. “They need to appear respectable, to attend global forums, secure aid, and attract investment,” Yates noted.
--ChannelAfrica--
