According to Daniel Akech Thiong, Senior Analyst on South Sudan at the International Crisis Group, the conflict could become decentralised, with violence spreading beyond the control of both President Salva Kiir and Machar. Thiong warned that many of Machar’s forces have merged into their communities and could re-emerge under local militia groups, exacerbating the conflict further.

The arrest of Machar and his wife was carried out by security forces loyal to Kiir, who deployed an armed convoy to Machar’s residence in Juba. The convoy, led by senior security officials, disarmed Machar’s bodyguards and detained the couple. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO) condemned the move, asserting that it effectively nullifies the 2018 peace agreement that ended South Sudan's brutal civil war.

The United Nations, along with international bodies including the United States Bureau of African Affairs, has expressed grave concern, calling on Kiir to release Machar in order to prevent further escalation.

Thiong explained that the arrest of Machar was not entirely unexpected, given the ongoing political tensions and the President’s restructuring of the government. “People were not surprised that it would actually lead to this because since these tensions started in February, the President’s restructuring of the government has been ongoing. Positions belonging to Machar’s party have been reassigned, leading to significant protests,” he noted.

Violence has already spread across several regions of South Sudan, including Upper Nile, Unity State, and areas surrounding Juba. On March24 , Ugandan forces supporting Kiir reportedly launched airstrikes on a base linked to Machar near Juba. Thiong added, “South Sudan has, in effect, been at war since early March. As soon as Ugandan forces arrived in Juba, we started seeing airstrikes on civilian locations in Upper Nile. The escalation has continued, and the security situation is deteriorating.”

The crisis is further compounded by internal and external pressures on Kiir’s government, including the economic collapse exacerbated by the war in neighbouring Sudan. Some observers believe that Kiir’s restructuring of the government may also be aimed at consolidating power and preparing the ground for his chosen successor.

Meanwhile, many of Machar’s forces, who did not integrate into official military structures after the peace deal, are scattered across militia groups, including the White Army. Thiong cautioned that the conflict could intensify, stating, “This conflict could become decentralised, with violence spreading beyond Kiir and Machar’s control. Many of Machar’s forces have merged into their communities and could re-emerge under local militia groups.”

The SPLM-IO has declared that the arrest of Machar and the recent developments effectively dissolve the peace agreement. While an official declaration of war has not yet been made, the escalating violence indicates that South Sudan may once again be heading towards a prolonged and decentralised conflict.

--ChannelAfrica--