Inflation would average 1% in 2025, following a drop in food prices, before ticking up to 1.8% next year, the bank said in a statement following its quarterly board meeting.

The forecast remains shrouded in "uncertainty", the bank said citing trade policies, the repercussions of conflict in some regions and the performance of the domestic farming sector.

The bank projected economic growth of 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up from 3.8% in 2024.
Despite the recent imposition of U.S. import tariffs of 10%, the bank said their impact on Morocco "should remain limited". Moroccan officials say trade with the US makes up only a tiny fraction of the country's exports.

The central bank forecast that the current account deficit would remain stable at around 2% of GDP in both 2025 and 2026, supported by growing phosphate and automotive exports.

Foreign exchange reserves are expected to reach 407 billion Dirhams ($44.7 billion) in 2025 and 423.7 billion dirhams in 2026, enough to cover 5.5 months of import needs, it said.

The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 3.4% of GDP in 2026, from 3.9% this year, as rising tax revenues help offset increased public investment spending.

--Reuters--